Smucker Up

06/12/25 Prospero.ai Investing (228th) Edition (Midweek)

Anomaly detection, or outlier detection, is the process of identifying observations, events, or data points that deviate from what is usual, standard, or expected—making them inconsistent with the rest of a dataset.

So, what does anomaly detection have to do with smuckering up (to borrow the phrase from our title)? Everything—especially when it comes to our signal- and process-based approach. What drives our success is consistency: our signals generate the same metrics, on the same scales, every single day. We rely on mostly the same screeners each Sunday.

When we get into a stock early—like Applovin, anticipate a bankruptcy—like WOLF, or catch a recovery early—like META, it’s because those names stand out in our signals.

That brings us to SJM—J.M. Smucker. It popped unusually high on our bear screener, a rare occurrence. Sure enough, it delivered disappointing earnings this week, and we’ve already seen an 13.54% gain.

But that’s already in the rearview. So how can this help you going forward?

Whether you’re exploring new names in the Our Picks section of our app (which uses the same formulas daily—ideal for spotting anomalies), or keeping an eye on your favorite stocks to see when their metrics shift outside of their norm, anomaly detection always delivers valuable information to help you make better decisions.

A WORD FROM OUR CEO

A positive week for us but a volatile one has our paper trading portfolio beating the S&P 500 by 105% annualized, with a win rate of 61% against SPY benchmarks.

Short intro + learning videos with our full app tour as well as advice on how to use this letter.

Don’t have our app yet? Use it to track your investments with Prospero’s proprietary AI tech.

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Smucker Up

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