What are the chances?

11/21/24 Prospero.Ai Investing (171st) Edition (Midweek)

We were going to write about NVDA today but it is such a meaty topic that we pushed it to the weekend.

The title of the letter reflects the volatility we are seeing in Net Options Sentiment. That is normally what we use to inform us of the chances the market is going up or down. But right now it is moving so fast we are leaning on other methods that we will get into below.

One thought we want to leave you with is something we touched on in our livestream. Walmart had a great earnings report this week and Target did not. We have been watching consumer spending closely and these are important data points. While spending might not be down overall this could be a further sign that people are cutting back by going with the cheaper brand Walmart but there could be other reasons that we go into in this clip.

A WORD FROM OUR CEO 

We have picked stocks well in both directions because we have increased our market beat well by staying fairly even long/short and are beating the S&P 500 by 92% annualized, with a win rate of 60% against SPY benchmarks. 

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What are the chances?

Market/Macro Update